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RowanE comments on Generalizing from One Trend - Less Wrong
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Comments (23)
Did Orwell and Huxley actually believe in the dystopias they were writing as predictions of the future? I find this hard to believe so I'd at least like some sources for that.
Yes and yes. This letter from Huxley to Orwell is also illuminating.
In my original draft of this post I expanded the discussion of these points considerably, but ultimately decided that it was distracting and that the post was perhaps too long anyway.
As for Huxley, I would like to point out:
1) Brave New World was set in the far future.
2) Many of the trends he was generalizing from, e.g. improvements in biotechnology and disintegration of the traditional family structure, have continued since his time.
Did you read the letter? Huxley thought the Brave New World society would be set up "within the next generation" thanks to the advent of psychoanalysis and hypnosis and the combination of these techniques with psychoactive drugs.
Interesting, I am reminded of a Milton Friedman quote where he says that in retrospect his predictions were right about what would happen, but wrong about when.