Is it just me, or are the betting rules on Bets of Bitcoin, er, incomprehensible? It takes the worst form of betting - parimutuel betting in horse racing - in common use in America, and adds a bunch of arbitrary time based rules to adjust how bitcoins are spread among the winners. In order to actually make a bet there, I would have to estimate:
I'm fairly certain this is the worst betting scheme I've ever seen, and I'm somewhat suspicious of it given the general sketchiness of the bitcoin community (partially offset by the revealed incompetence of the bitcoin community). One notable casualty of this system is the ability to convert their betting information into informational probability estimates of the event occurring.
Why do you say that parimutuel betting is the worst form? What is the dimension along which it is bad?
I'd like to become better calibrated via PredictionBook and other tools, but coming up with well-specified predictions can be very time-consuming. It's handy to be provided with a stock of specific claims to make predictions (or post-dictions) about, as with CFAR's Credence Game.
Therefore, I asked Jake Miller and Gwern put together a list of prediction sources. Feel free to suggest others!
Prediction Sites