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CarlShulman comments on Mini advent calendar of Xrisks: nuclear war - Less Wrong
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I recently had a Q&A with one of the authors of the recent nuclear winter papers, on the extent of x-risk from nuclear winter. They thought it very small relative to the catastrophic risk.
Here is a discussion of food sources during nuclear winter.
Thanks! We may have tor revise our rankings at some point (since we have nobody working on nuclear war currently, we haven't fully analysed it).
PS: in your Q&A, you don't seem to have mentioned anthropic bias - using past events to estimate survival probability is affected by this.
Anthropics folk can do this. For a subject matter expert I figure it would have added complication and noise.
Fair enough. But it does mean we can't take his estimate at face value.