Stuart_Armstrong comments on Mini advent calendar of Xrisks: nuclear war - Less Wrong

5 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 04 December 2012 11:13AM

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Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 04 December 2012 06:13:47PM * 5 points [-]

Thanks! We may have tor revise our rankings at some point (since we have nobody working on nuclear war currently, we haven't fully analysed it).

PS: in your Q&A, you don't seem to have mentioned anthropic bias - using past events to estimate survival probability is affected by this.

Comment author: CarlShulman 04 December 2012 08:43:04PM * 3 points [-]

Anthropics folk can do this. For a subject matter expert I figure it would have added complication and noise.

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 05 December 2012 10:44:20AM 0 points [-]

Fair enough. But it does mean we can't take his estimate at face value.