Okay. I'll bet with somewhere around 50% probability that the Great Reductionist Project as I've described it works, with reduction to a single thing counting as success, and requiring magical reality-fluid counting as failure. I'll bet with 95% probability that it's right on the next occasion for anthropics and magical reality-fluid, and with 99+ probability that it's right on the next occasion for things that confuse me less; except that when it comes to e.g. free will, I don't know who I'd accept as a judge that didn't think the issue already settled.