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Eugine_Nier comments on Mixed Reference: The Great Reductionist Project - Less Wrong
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After it's been right the last 300 times or so, we should assess a substantial probability that it will be wrong before the 1,000th occasion, but believe much more strongly that it will be correct on the next occasion.
Only because you're cheating by reclassifying all cases where it was wrong as cases where we haven't figure out how to properly apply it yet.