Most of the capabilities offered for hypothetical Drexlerian technology seem to be just quantitative increases in already existing trends:
I don't see much distinctive 'nanotechnology x-risk' that couldn't be realized by continued ordinary technological progress and much improved automation. So any significance has to come from nanotechnology prospects boosting our expectation of those capabilities on some timescales, which demands some argument that nanotech is going to progress faster than expected and drive those fields ahead of trend..
The theory is that Drexlerian nanotech would dramatically speed up progress in several technical fields (biotech, medicine, computers, materials, robotics) and also dramatically speed up manufacturing all at the same time. If it actually works that way the instability would arise from the sudden introduction of new capabilities combined with the ability to put them into production very quickly. Essentially, it lets innovators get inside the decision loop of society at large and introduce big changes faster than governments or the general public can adapt.
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The FHI's mini advent calendar: counting down through the big five existential risks. The third one is a also a novel risk: nanotechnology.
Nanotechnology
Current understanding: low
Most worrying aspect: the good stuff and the bad stuff are the same thing
The potential of nanotechnology is its ability to completely transform and revolutionise manufacturing and materials. The peril of nanotechnology is its ability to completely transform and revolutionise manufacturing and materials. And it’s hard to separate the two. Nanotech manufacturing promises to be extremely disruptive to existing trade arrangements and to the balance of economic power: small organisations could produce as many goods as much as whole countries today, collapsing standard trade relationships and causing sudden unemployment and poverty in places not expecting this.
And in this suddenly unstable world, nanotechnology will also permit the mass production of many new tools of war – from microscopic spy drones to large scale weapons with exotic properties. It will also weaken trust in disarmament agreements, as a completely disarmed country would have the potential to assemble an entire arsenal – say of cruise missiles – in the span of a day or less.