jimrandomh comments on A Probability Question - Less Wrong
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Comments (16)
You've taken a piece of information - you observe the man with a son - and half-applied it, by crossing off two daughters as a possibility, but you forgot to update the relative probability of having two boys, since you were more likely to see him with a son if he had two sons than if he had a son and a daughter.
Ah I did not see this post last night. Thanks.