I agree with most of what was said here, except that, well.... I don't think it has the potential to actually cause humans to go extinct, or even to simply collapse civilization :-/ Even if a pandemic killed off 75 % of all humans, I have an unprovable feeling civilization would be able to soldier on. This is substantiated by a couple of observations; nearly all human knowledge has multiple backups (pandemics don't kill libraries), so we wouldn't have to reinvent science from scratch. Plus,remaining population would have access to all the material goods of the dead (including canned goods, long lasting food, etc. Which wouldn't be nearly enough to sustain human population for more than a month, but which would give time for people to pick up a book on farming or some such).
On the other hand, it is virtually guaranteed that a pandemic WILL happen (I define pandemic as something that shows up on the news a lot and causes some panic. Kill ratios depend on a case by case basis), given our interconnectedness which is frankly unprecedented in human history (i.e. Microbes, viruses and germs never had airplanes before 1902)
On the other hand, it is virtually guaranteed that a pandemic WILL happen (I define pandemic as something that shows up on the news a lot and causes some panic. Kill ratios depend on a case by case basis)
Given how easy it is to get the media into headless chicken mode, I don't think this is the best standard.
The FHI's mini advent calendar: counting down through the big five existential risks. The fourth one is an ancient risk, still with us today: pandemics and plagues.
Pandemics
Current understanding: high
Most worrying aspect: the past evidence points to a risky future
The deathrates from infectious diseases follow a power law with a very low exponent. In layman’s terms: there is a reasonable possibility for a plague with an absolutely huge casualty rate. We’ve had close calls in the past: the black death killed around half the population of Europe, while Spanish Influenza infected 27% of all humans and killed one in ten of those, mostly healthy young adults. All the characteristics of an ultimately deadly infection already exist in the wild: anything that combined the deadliness and incubation period of AIDS with the transmissibility of the common cold.
Moreover, we know that we are going to be seeing new diseases and new infections in the future: the only question is how deadly they will be. With modern global travel and transport, these diseases will spread far and wide. Against this, we have better communication and better trans-national institutions and cooperation – but these institutions could easily be overwhelmed, and countries aren’t nearly as well prepared as they need to be.