I have some money that I was saving for something like this, but I also just saw Eliezer's (very convincing) request for CFAR donations yesterday and heard a rumor that SIAI was trying to get people to donate to CFAR because they needed it more.
This seems weird to me because I would expect that with SIAI's latest announcement they have shifted from waterline-raising/community-building to more technical areas where CFAR success would be of less help to them, but I'd be very interested in hearing from an SIAI higher-up whether they really want my money or whether they would prefer I give it to CFAR instead.
1) In the long run, for CFAR to succeed, it has to be supported by a CFAR donor base that doesn't funge against SIAI money. I expect/hope that CFAR will have a substantially larger budget in the long run than SIAI. In the long run, then, marginal x-risk minimizers should be donating to SIAI.
2) But since CFAR is at a very young and very vital stage in its development and has very little funding, it needs money right now. And CFAR really really needs to succeed for SIAI to be viable in the long-term.
So my guess is that a given dollar is probably more va...
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I will mostly be traveling (for AGI-12) for the next 25 hours, but I will try to answer questions after that.