I have backup plans, but they tend to look a lot like "Try founding CFAR again."
I don't know of any good way to scale funding or core FAI researchers for SIAI without rationalists. There's other things I could try, and would if necessary try, but I spent years trying various SIAI-things before LW started actually working. Just because I wouldn't give up no matter what, doesn't mean there wouldn't be a fairly large chunk of success-probability sliced off if CFAR failed, and a larger chunk of probability sliced off if I couldn't make any alternative to CFAR work.
I realize a lot of people think it shouldn't be impossible to fund SIAI without all that rationality stuff. They haven't tried it. Lots of stuff sounds easy if you haven't tried it.
Thankyou Eliezer. I'm fascinated by the reasoning and analysis that you're hinting at here. It helps puts the decisions you and SIAI have made in perspective.
Could you give a ballpark estimate of how much of the importance of successful rationality spin offs is based on expectations of producing core FAI researchers versus producing FAI funding?
Cross-posted here.
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I will mostly be traveling (for AGI-12) for the next 25 hours, but I will try to answer questions after that.