srn347 comments on Why you must maximize expected utility - Less Wrong
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It is essentially that, and it does show that trying to maximize expected utility can lead to such negative outcomes. Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be a simple alternative to maximizing expected utility that doesn't lead to being a money pump. The kelly criterion is an excellent example of a decision-making strategy that doesn't maximize expected utility but still wins compared to it, so at least it's known that it can be done.