Comment on Open Thread, December 16-31, 2012

Wed, 26 Dec 2012 01:38:05 GMT

Given . . . recent trends in launch costs, launch rates, space project completion times and budgets.

My point is that taking those trends as a given after a Kessler syndrome catastrophe - when substantially all technology that relies on LEO satellites no longer work - is a strange presumption. Current trends contain very little information about what would happen if LEO were unusable.

If GPS stopped working, the US government would fund its replacement solely to regain the military advantage it provides. Likewise, telecommunications companies would be irrational if they refused to devote a substantial portion of their potential revenue to re-building the capacity that earns them billions in revenue.

In short, the lack of resources currently devoted to clean-up may not be maximizing expected value - but there's substantial resources that would become available if failure to provide them would leave LEO unusable for multiple decades. Taxes would be raised, private bonds would be floated, environmental regulations would be waived or amended, but LEO would be made usable.

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