hairyfigment comments on More Cryonics Probability Estimates - Less Wrong

20 Post author: jkaufman 17 December 2012 08:59PM

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Comment author: hairyfigment 17 December 2012 11:38:54PM *  0 points [-]

I just ran the numbers assuming I pay US $3000 /year (I forget Hoffman's actual figure) for 33 years (mind you, I think deathtimer.com is too pessimistic there) discounted at 3% /year (the average annual inflation rate since 1913 equals 3.24%). The EPA set the value of a human life at $9.1 million two years ago. Perhaps I'm rigging the numbers by updating this for (actual) inflation and only discounting it by the 1/1500 probability. But I first estimated the value of my own life at $20 million, and I don't think I'd actually kill myself in return for (say) an SI donation that size.

The 'official' numbers would appear to make cryonics under-priced by $1403 in present value. (Edited to use official figures.)

Comment author: jkaufman 18 December 2012 02:21:13PM 0 points [-]

Poking at deathtimer I'm not sure it's adjusting for "you've already lived to age X". It says I'll probably live to 77 which is pretty close to what this table has for my life expectancy at birth.

Comment author: jkaufman 19 December 2012 01:53:34AM 0 points [-]

Plus it's definitely not adjusting for potential future medical advances.