= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
torekp comments on More Cryonics Probability Estimates - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (89)
There's a possibly-important probability missing from your analysis.
For it to be worth paying for cryonics, it has to (1) work and (2) not be redundant. That is: revival and repair has to become feasible and not too expensive before your cryonics company goes bust, disappears in a collapse of civilization, etc. -- but if that happens within your lifetime then you needn't have bothered with cryonics in the first place.
So the success condition is: huge technical advances, quite soon, but not too soon.
Whether this matters depends on (a) whether it's likely that if revival and repair become viable at all they'll do so in the next few decades, and (b) whether, in that scenario, the outcome is so glorious that you simply won't care that you poured a pile of money into cryonics that you could have spent on books, or sex&drugs&rock&roll, or whatever.
Two other potential forms of redundancy:
Future civilizations have the power and motivation to restore even people who were simply buried
Everything you ever coherently wanted to get out of cryopreservation can be achieved by a cheaper method, e.g. having children
I don't think the first point has significant probability, but I'll throw it out there in case it inspires someone to find more possibilities I've overlooked.