Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on More Cryonics Probability Estimates - Less Wrong
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I wonder if that would actually work, or if the finer granularity basically just trashes the ability of your brain to estimate probabilities.
I think it's also good to mention that this kind of questionnaire does not account for possible future advancements which are not included due to lack of availability. The same though applies for further negative changes in the future, but when looking at that list for an example items follows are completely missing:
etc..
..That is to say it's one thing to 'unpack' a proposition and another to do it accurately or at least I would think a questionnaire with uncertain positive and negative future events would seem less biased.
I think it's also worthwhile to consider the possibility that this unpacking business is an sort of an inverse of conjunction fallacy - although it's not exactly the same thing, but I think it's a very closely related topic?