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juliawise comments on More Cryonics Probability Estimates - Less Wrong
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To me this just looks like a bias-manipulating "unpacking" trick - as you divide larger categories into smaller and smaller subcategories, the probability that people assign to the total category goes up and up. I could equally make cryonics success sound almost certain by lumping all the failure categories together into one or two big things to be probability-assigned, and unpacking all the disjunctive paths to success into finer and finer subcategories. Which I don't do, because I don't lie.
Also, yon neuroscientist does not understand the information-theoretic criterion of death.
I'd be interested to see someone do that.
There are a lot of variants on this exercise that could be studies in bias. The five of us doing this estimate on the bus, for example, realized that our answers came out clustered while Jeff's was far away because we had done it together. For each individual question we were supposed to think of our own answer before anyone spoke, to avoid anchoring. But we were anchored by the answers the others had given to all the previous questions.