Kindly comments on More Cryonics Probability Estimates - Less Wrong

20 Post author: jkaufman 17 December 2012 08:59PM

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Comment author: Kindly 27 December 2012 06:24:57AM 1 point [-]

not sure about this one. I know the generalized sum rule but not how to apply it to 100 0.01 disjuncts

This is just the complement of the previous probability you computed: 1-0.99^100, which is indeed approximately 0.632. Rather than compute this directly, you might observe that (1-1/n)^n converges very quickly to 1/e or approximately 0.368.

Comment author: gwern 27 December 2012 07:10:41PM 2 points [-]

Yeah, nsheppard pointed that out to me after I wrote the fold. Oh well! I'll know better next time.