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Emile comments on [SEQ RERUN] The Bad Guy Bias - Less Wrong
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Comments (16)
I think you're missing Eugine's point.
Consider someone that may or may not rape your daughter - the probability that he does so is function of how likely it is you'll spend your day and nights hunting him down in order to slowly torture him to death, with no concern for law or personal safety.
Consider an earthquake that may or may not destroy your house. The probability that it does so is independent of what you precommit to doing afterwards.
Sure, in both cases we can prevent the tragedy through other ways, but that's not the main issue.
(Edit: Oops, thanks Eugine)
Correct.
B.T.W., I think you left out a word like "rape" or "kill" from the first example.