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nyan_sandwich comments on Implications of an infinite versus a finite universe - Less Wrong
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Expected physical frequency always matches probability. This specific context has the same problem. If I believe that superintelligence is possible at 50% confidence, it does not follow that on 50% of candidate worlds, superintelligence develops, and on the others, it doesn't.
Well, of course it doesn't necessarily follow. The fact that a resource-limited agent's estimates sometimes prove inaccurate doesn't imply that their estimates are not probabilities. E.g. see here:
Yes sorry, I fucked up the wording/thinking there. EPF always matches probability, and estimates are always probabilities.
Edited the parent to have clearer wording.