= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Vladimir_Nesov comments on Positive Bias Test (C++ program) - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (75)
I think the game primes you to make the bias through the example:
So the results may be significantly skewed
That's kinda the point. And then you get unlimited confirmation for the wrong idea you got from this example, unless you are clever enough to perform negative tests too.
So then this seems like the test would then be more priming centered rather than positively bias based. If it was truly a pure positive bias test then there should be no hypothesis primed through example.
I am learning to play GO right now and it is very hard to start to play effectively because there are very few instructional guides which give you strategies. Rather, each guide simply explicates the rules and lets you free to make your own hypotheses. Such an example would be a better bias test in my opinion. This is a simple fix, eliminate the example, and may give a more accurate result.
It is absolutely NOT a trick question.
There are an infinite number of hypotheses for what an 'Awesome Triplet' could be. Here are some example hypotheses that could be true based on our initial evidence '2 4 6 is an awesome triplet':
1. Any three integers
2. Any three integers in ascending order
3. Three successive multiples of the same number
4. The sequence '2 4 6'
5. Three integers not contained in the set '512 231123 691 9834 91238 1'
We cannot falsify every possible hypothesis, so we need a strategy to falsify hypotheses, starting from the most likely. All hypotheses are not created equal.
I want to falsify as much of the hypotheses-space as possible (where simple hypthoses take up more space), so I design a test that should do so. My first test was '3 integers in descending order', because it can falsify #1, the simplest hypothesis. I find from this test that #1 is false. My second test is to distinguish between #2 & #3; '3 integers in ascending order, but not successive multiples of the same number', '1 2 5' I find from this test that #2 is still plausible, but #3 is falsified.
You can continue falsifying smaller and smaller areas of the hypothesis-space with additional tests, up until you're happy with your confidence level or you're bored of testing.
For much better coverage of this entire area, see the following posts by Eliezer:
* What is Evidence?
* The Lens That Sees Its Flaws
* How Much Evidence Does It Take?
* Occam's Razor
For a good overview of additional related posts, see the list.
Edit: Learning Markdown, fixing style.