We don't expect a sudden increase in the self-improvement abilities of machines either.
Maybe you don't expect that, but surely you must be aware that many of us do.
Anyway, nothing seems particularly close to powerful enough to be catastrophically dangerous at the moment except for nuclear-armed nations, which have been fairly stable in their power and, with the exception of North Korea, which isn't powerful enough, the rest of the nuclear powers are not much of a threat because they would prefer not to cause massive destruction. Every organization that's not a country is far enough away from that level of power that I don't expect them to become catastrophically dangerous any time soon without a sudden increase in self-improvement.
We don't expect a sudden increase in the self-improvement abilities of machines either.
Maybe you don't expect that, but surely you must be aware that many of us do.
I am aware that there's an argument that at some point things will be changing rapidly:
I think that at some point in the development of Artificial Intelligence, we are likely to see a fast, local increase in capability - "AI go FOOM".
We are witness to Moore's law. A straightforwards extrapolation of that says that at some point things will be changing rapidly. I don't have ...
If I understand the Singularitarian argument espoused by many members of this community (eg. Muehlhauser and Salamon), it goes something like this:
I'm in danger of getting into politics. Since I understand that political arguments are not welcome here, I will refer to these potentially unfriendly human intelligences broadly as organizations.
Smart organizations
By "organization" I mean something commonplace, with a twist. It's commonplace because I'm talking about a bunch of people coordinated somehow. The twist is that I want to include the information technology infrastructure used by that bunch of people within the extension of "organization".
Do organizations have intelligence? I think so. Here's some of the reasons why:
I talked with Mr. Muehlhauser about this specifically. I gather that at least at the time he thought human organizations should not be counted as intelligences (or at least as intelligences with the potential to become superintelligences) because they are not as versatile as human beings.
...and then...
I think that Muehlhauser is slightly mistaken on a few subtle but important points. I'm going to assert my position on them without much argument because I think they are fairly sensible, but if any reader disagrees I will try to defend them in the comments.
Mean organizations
* My preferred standard of rationality is communicative rationality, a Habermasian ideal of a rationality aimed at consensus through principled communication. As a consequence, when I believe a position to be rational, I believe that it is possible and desirable to convince other rational agents of it.