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p4wnc6 comments on Donation tradeoffs in conscientious objection - Less Wrong
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At this point, it is extremely unlikely that the United States will return to a general draft any time soon. This is politically untenable. (This may be unfortunate: there's a decent argument that drafts make people less likely to support war when they know their kids may be called up.) In any event, I'd estimate around a 1% chance of a draft in the next decade, moving to 5% in the next 20 years, in which case you will almost certainly be well above draft age before it is activated. Speaking more generally, these don't seem like major issues to worry about, aren't connected that much to rationality, and are things involving legal issues which can be better served by asking a lawyer rather than a general internet forum.
I agree with much of this, but I would say that 1-5 % is a large chance, relative to how much I would get negative utils from such an experience.
Legal advice is a big component of my question, but there's another component that is best served by asking about tradeoffs between different behaviors, like donating. Maybe that doesn't overlap strongly enough with rationality to make it relatable to the extent that true optimal philanthropy posts would be, but it's still something and I feel it's fine at least for the discussion area.. certainly not a topic for a main post or anything.