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Peterdjones comments on You can't signal to rubes - Less Wrong
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There are career criminals, so dishinesty can work. Dishonesty is not guaranteed to work, but "worth it" is statistical. BTW, many nations have been caught out in all kinds of bullcrap -- the Zinoviev Letter, Iran-Contra, etc.. It tends to get forgotten about. It's not like people have high expectations of politicians.