Strange7 comments on You can't signal to rubes - Less Wrong
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I'm not sure that's true. Wikipedia lists several competing theories:
Now, how would one test this? Especially considering that some theories mostly differ in their explanations of the evolutionary history leading to the present; they all match the present birds. I do know that real-life biologists sometime claim peacocks as archetypical evidence for sexual selection, and others claim it as evidence for costly signalling of fitness.
A predator which relies on vision for target identification might survivably assume that anything which appears large and flashy actually is physically large, with muscles and defenses to match, thus out of it's league, and look elsewhere for prey. A wide flat tail with a colorful pattern is probably the most cost-effective way to maximize your apparent size, at least from the front and back.