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army1987 comments on Open Thread, January 1-15, 2013 - Less Wrong
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Note that the last survey made it explicitly clear that the question was “what is the year such that P(Singularity before year|Singularity ever) = P(Singularity after year|Singularity ever) = 0.5”, whereas in the previous surveys it was ambiguous between that and “P(Singularity before year) = P(Singularity after year) + P(no Singularity ever) = 0.5”.