Well, we have a pretty good test for who was stronger. Who won? In the real story, overdogs win.
--Mencius Moldbug, here
I can't overemphasise how much I agree with this quote as a heuristic.
As I noted in my other comment, he redefined the terms underdog/overdog to be based on poteriors, not priors, effectively rendering them redundant (and useless as a heuristic).
Happy New Year! Here's the latest and greatest installment of rationality quotes. Remember: