nyan_sandwich comments on Rationality Quotes January 2013 - Less Wrong

6 Post author: katydee 02 January 2013 05:23PM

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Comment author: [deleted] 17 January 2013 08:30:45PM *  2 points [-]

And yet if you add those two posterior distributions, weighted by your current probability of ending up with each, you get your prior back. Magic!

(Witch burners don't get their prior back when they do this because they expect to update in the direction of "she's a witch" in either case, so when they sum over probable posteriors, they get back their real prior which says "I already know that she's a witch", the implication being "the trial has low value of information, let's just burn her now".)

Comment author: gwern 17 January 2013 08:34:53PM 1 point [-]

Yup, sure does. Which is a step toward the right idea Kindly was gesturing at.