I don't think we are disagreeing on substance. "Underdog" and similar labels are narrative labels, not predictive labels. I interpreted Moldbug as saying that treating narrative labels as predictive labels is likely to lead one to make mistaken predictions and / or engage in hindsight bias. This is a true statement, but not a particularly useful one - it's a good first step, but not a complete analysis.

Thus, the extent to which Moldbug treats the statement as complete analysis is error.