= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Thomas comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2013) - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (29)
I predict that the comet ISON will be barely visible and not at all the most spectacular comet in history, as the current hype goes.
With what confidence?
90 percent that it will not be very bright and 99.99% that it will NOT be a historic record.
Why? For several comets from the past decades I remember, the expectations how bright they will be, were very high. With a naked eye we then hardly saw one or two. This is one reason.
The other one is that the composition data of this comet and of all the others should be very good, for such claims. What is not a case.