gwern comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2013) - Less Wrong

5 Post author: Thomas 01 January 2013 02:03PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (29)

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: gwern 01 January 2013 11:20:36PM 9 points [-]

Previous:

Feel free to use http://predictionbook.com/happenstance ; for quick gratification, make predictions using http://predictionbook.com/predictions/future (My own prediction are all at http://predictionbook.com/users/gwern )

2 large collections of predictions for those interested in the specific topics:

On the benefits of predicting, and heuristics/tips/advice: http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets#predictionbook-nights

While we're on the topic: today I closed up a batch of predictions on the success of the 2012 Haskell Summer of Code projects: http://www.gwern.net/Haskell%20Summer%20of%20Code#results-2 I didn't do very well, since I got bushwhacked by 2 hard-to-predict failures and a disappointment from someone I didn't expect to disappoint me.