janos comments on How much to spend on a high-variance option? - Less Wrong

9 Post author: RolfAndreassen 03 January 2013 06:38PM

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Comment author: janos 04 January 2013 02:33:55AM *  0 points [-]

I think you're making the wrong comparisons. If you buy $1 worth, you get p(win) * U(jackpot) + (1-p(win)) * U(-$1), which is more-or-less p(win)*U(jackpot)+U(-$1); this is a good idea if p(win) * U(jackpot) > -U(-$1). But under usual assumptions -U(-$2)>-2U(-$1). This adds up to normality; you shouldn't actually spend all your money. :)

Comment author: prase 04 January 2013 06:29:44PM 0 points [-]

Of course you are right, silly mistake.

(Not really important nitpick:) The dollar is spent once the ticket is bought and doesn't return even if you win, so you shoudn't have there (1-p(win)) * U(-$1), but just U(-$1).