katydee comments on Don't Build Fallout Shelters - Less Wrong

26 Post author: katydee 07 January 2013 02:38PM

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Comment author: katydee 07 January 2013 03:18:24PM *  6 points [-]

With a given probability of nuclear war, we don't care about the utility difference between war and not war; we care about the difference between preparations succeed and preparations fail, which is the probability we are trying to control when buying a fallout shelter.

I'm not sure I agree. When optimizing for utility across one's lifespan, it's important to note that years of post-nuke life are both more expensive and carry less utility than years of non-nuke life. So when you evaluate the utility/dollar of building a fallout shelter and compare it to the utility/dollar of other potential investments, you need to put a discount factor on the years of life you expect your shelter to gain for you in the event of a war.

For instance, if I expected with 50% confidence a nuclear war that will certainly kill me if it occurs while I am unprotected and were presented with the following options:

  • Option A: Purchase a bomb shelter that will grant ten years of post-nuke life in the event of a nuclear war but will grant no benefit in the event of no nuclear war

  • Option B: Purchase an experimental health intervention that will grant on average five years of additional healthy life in the event of no nuclear war, but have no effect in the event of a nuclear war (as I'll die before getting to benefit)

I would probably consider option B to be superior to option A, because my intuitions suggest that the utility of post-nuclear life would be massively discounted.

Comment author: Strange7 08 January 2013 02:56:44AM 7 points [-]

Be careful about over-discounting, though. After a few years of post-nuke life, a lot of the utility penalties from lack of modern support would go away as you found alternatives or simply got used to it, and some people might be envigorated by the challenges of a "bad-ass horror wake."

Comment author: Vaniver 07 January 2013 09:13:29PM 6 points [-]

nyan_sandwich is correct that your wording, specifically the "thus," is incorrect. The argument "fallout shelters need to be cost-effective compared to other preventative measures to be wise, and they probably aren't" is a good one; even the narrow "nuclear wars are unpleasant to survive, and we should discount preparations accordingly" is fine; the argument "nuclear wars are unpleasant to survive, thus we shouldn't prepare for them" isn't a good one.

Put another way, the argument reads as "Because other medicine will be destroyed, you should not provide your own medicine," which is odd; no, when other medicine is destroyed is the best time to provide my own medicine! The insurance might not be cost-effective but there's no denying that it's insurance.

Comment author: katydee 07 January 2013 10:14:16PM 0 points [-]

The actual quote from the original post is:

Unfortunately, full-scale nuclear war is very likely to impair medicine and science for quite some time, perhaps permanently.

Thus even if your fallout shelter succeeds, you will likely live a shorter and less pleasant life than you would otherwise.

This does not seem as if it is stating "nuclear wars are unpleasant to survive, thus we shouldn't prepare for them;" it seems as if it is stating "nuclear wars are unpleasant to survive, and we should discount preparations accordingly." What am I missing?

Comment author: Vaniver 07 January 2013 10:58:40PM 2 points [-]

I think it's the combination of "thus" and "otherwise" being insufficiently clear. There are two main possible interpretations:

  1. Conditioned on a nuclear war happening, if your fallout shelter succeeds, you will likely live a shorter and less pleasant life than if your fallout shelter fails.

  2. If a nuclear war happens and your fallout shelter succeeds, you will likely live a shorter and less pleasant life than if nuclear war does not occur.

The first is obviously wrong; the second is incomplete, because it penalizes the act of building the shelter (the variable under control) for the occurrence of the nuclear war without penalizing the act of not building the shelter in the event of a nuclear war occurring. The full analysis is a 2x2 matrix, where the fallout shelter actually does make you better off if the war occurs, and actually does make you worse off if the war doesn't occur.

Comment author: katydee 08 January 2013 08:16:41PM *  0 points [-]

Thanks for the clarification. What do you think of the following revision to that passage?

Unfortunately, full-scale nuclear war is very likely to impair medicine and science for quite some time, perhaps permanently.

Thus, even if your fallout shelter succeeds, it will only partially mitigate the harm done to you by nuclear war, not erase it completely. You must apply a discount factor to the years of life that you expect your fallout shelter to buy you in the event of a nuclear war.

Comment author: Vaniver 08 January 2013 08:31:58PM *  1 point [-]

That's fine; I might move the conclusion up to the introduction, like this (my edited version):

Further, one must consider the quality of life reduction that one would likely experience in a post-nuclear war world and discount accordingly. Even if your fallout shelter succeeds, it will only partially mitigate the harm done to you by nuclear war, not erase it completely. You may have enough medicine stockpiled to prevent enough diseases that you eventually die of old age, but the prospects of curing old age or undoing death require medical and scientific progress that require large and advanced human civilization. Unfortunately, full-scale nuclear war is very likely to impair medicine and science for quite some time, perhaps permanently.

Seeking to buy QALYs by investing in a fallout shelter is buying them when they're lower quality, and unlikely to be delivered, and thus probably underperforms other investments.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 08 January 2013 09:48:25PM 4 points [-]

Seeking to buy QALYs by investing in a fallout shelter is buying them when they're lower quality, expensive

This is highly dubious. You probably have much cheaper low hanging fruit in the event of a disaster, than otherwise.

Comment author: Vaniver 08 January 2013 10:04:42PM 0 points [-]

Removed. You're right that I was double-counting the probably and value.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 08 January 2013 09:01:49PM 3 points [-]

I'm not sure I agree. When optimizing for utility across one's lifespan, it's important to note that years of post-nuke life are both more expensive and carry less utility than years of non-nuke life. So when you evaluate the utility/dollar of building a fallout shelter and compare it to the utility/dollar of other potential investments, you need to put a discount factor on the years of life you expect your shelter to gain for you in the event of a war.

Um, utility tends to have diminishing returns in material possessions, hence the utility comparison goes the other way.