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wwa comments on Evaluating the feasibility of SI's plan - Less Wrong
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full disclosure: I'm a professional cryptography research assistant. I'm not really interested in AI (yet) but there are obvious similarities when it comes to security.
I have to back Elizer up on the "Lots of strawmanning" part. No professional cryptographer will ever tell you there's hope in trying to achieve "perfect level of safety" of anything and cryptography, unlike AI, is a very well formalized field. As an example, I'll offer a conversation with a student:
How secure is this system? (such question is usually a shorthand for: "What's the probability this system won't be broken by methods X, Y and Z")
The theorem says
What's the probability that the proof of the theorem is correct?
... probably not
Now, before you go "yeah, right", I'll also say that I've already seen this once - there was a theorem in major peer reviewed journal that turned out to be wrong (counter-example found) after one of the students tried to implement it as a part of his thesis - so the probability was indeed not even close to
for any serious N. I'd like to point out that this doesn't even include problems with the implementation of the theory.
It's really difficult to explain how hard this stuff really is to people who never tried to develop anything like it. That's too bad (and a danger) because people who do get it rarely are in charge of the money. That's one reason for the CFAR/rationality movement... you need a tool to explain it to other people too, am I right?
Yup. Usual reference: "Probing the Improbable: Methodological Challenges for Risks with Low Probabilities and High Stakes". (I also have an essay on a similar topic.)
Upvoted for being gwern i.e. having a reference for everything... how do you do that?
Excellent visual memory, great Google & search skills, a thorough archive system, thousands of excerpts stored in Evernote, and essays compiling everything relevant I know of on a topic - that's how.
(If I'd been born decades ago, I'd probably have become a research librarian.)
Would love to read a gwern-essay on your archiving system. I use evernote, org-mode, diigo and pocket and just can't get them streamlined into a nice workflow. If evernote adopted diigo-like highlighting and let me seamlessly edit with Emacs/org-mode that would be perfect... but alas until then I'm stuck with this mess of a kludge. Teach us master, please!
I meant http://www.gwern.net/Archiving%20URLs
Of course your already have an answer. Thanks!
Why do you use diigo and pocket? They do the same thing. Also, with evernote's clearly you can highlight articles.
You weren't asking me, but I use diigo to manage links to online textbooks and tutorials, shopping items, book recommendations (through amazon), and my less important online article to read list. Evernote for saving all of my important read content (and I tag everything). Amazon's send to kindle extension to read longer articles (every once and a while I'll save all my clippings from my kindle to evernote). And then I maintain a personal wiki and collection of writings using markdown with evernote's import folder function in the pc software (I could also do this with a cloud service like gdrive).
I used diigo for annotation before clearly had highlighting. Now, just as you, use diigo for link storage and Evernote for content storage. Diigo annotation has still the advantage that it excerpts the text you highlight. With Clearly if I want to have the highlighted parts I have to find and manually select them again... Also tagging from clearly requires 5 or so clicks which is ridiculous... But I hope it will get fixed.
I plan to use pocket once I get a tablet... it is pretty and convenient, but the most likely to get cut out of the workflow.
Thanks for the evernote import function - I'll look into it, maybe it could make the Evenote - org-mode integration tighter. Even then, having 3 separate systems is not quite optimal...