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JoshuaFox comments on Evaluating the feasibility of SI's plan - Less Wrong
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We know a lot about what is needed in OS, Web software, etc., from experience.
Is it possible to go through 3 orders of magnitude of improvement in any system, such as a future AGI, without running a working system in between?
My reasoning is a bit different. We know that current desktop systems are a mess that we cobbled together over time with outdated techniques. The vpri basically showed that if we knew how to do it from the beginning, it would have been about 1000 times easier.
I expect the same to be true for any complex system, including AGI. If we cobble it together over time with outdated techniques, it will likely be 1000 times more complex than it needs to be. My hope is that we can actually avoid those complexities altogether. So that's not exactly an improvement, since there would be no crappy system to compare to.
As for the necessity of having a working system before we can improve it's design… well it's not always the case. I'm currently working on a metacompiler, and I'm refining its design right now, and I didn't even bootstrapped it yet.