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James_Miller comments on False vacuum: the universe playing quantum suicide - Less Wrong
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Shouldn't I expect to live in a young universe? I would expect that scientists would soon uncover evidence that the universe is much younger than they previously believed, barely young enough so that observers such as myself had enough time to come into existence.
If you treat quantum measure as probability, yes. If not... no.
Suppose I told you: I've just pressed a button that possibly reduces your measure by a half. Do you conclude that the button is likely to have failed?
Reducing by just a half might not be enough. But for enough of a reduction, yes.
It seems like there are different kinds of measure involved here. Assuming that quantum measure determines which entity we find ourselves instantiated in (alternatively, "who we are born as") seems distinct, and potentially less defensible than, assuming that quantum measure should determine how we assign future expectations.