I still pick "later", despite not thinking I have quantum immortality.
As in, my behavior in this scenario won't differ depending on whether my fate hangs on quantum vials or classical coin flips.
Of course, when I say "me" I mean the utility function describing myself that I outlined in the other comment in this thread... In real life I can't really imagine eating cake at a moment like that. I'll try to come up with a more realistic dilemma later to see if my gut instinct matches my utility function model....
I still pick "later", despite not thinking I have quantum immortality
I dunno, your choice is walking in a duck-like manner. Of course, intuition pumps are tricky, and we're usually not consistent with respect to them. For example, if I asked you to lock yourself in that room for ten dollars per minute, you'd refuse. Perhaps some conceptual weirdness stems from the fact that in the thought experiment, there's no point at which you're "let out to find out if you're dead or not."
Imagine that the universe is approximately as it appears to be (I know, this is a controversial proposition, but bear with me!). Further imagine that the many worlds interpretation of Quantum mechanics is true (I'm really moving out of Less Wrong's comfort zone here, aren't I?).
Now assume that our universe is in a situation of false vacuum - the universe is not in its lowest energy configuration. Somewhere, at some point, our universe may tunnel into true vacuum, resulting in a expanding bubble of destruction that will eat the entire universe at high speed, destroying all matter and life. In many worlds, such a collapse need not be terminal: life could go one on a branch of lower measure. In fact, anthropically, life will go on somewhere, no matter how unstable the false vacuum is.
So now assume that the false vacuum we're in is highly unstable - the measure of the branch in which our universe survives goes down by a factor of a trillion every second. We only exist because we're in the branch of measure a trillionth of a trillionth of a trillionth of... all the way back to the Big Bang.
None of these assumptions make any difference to what we'd expect to see observationally: only a good enough theory can say that they're right or wrong. You may notice that this setup transforms the whole universe into a quantum suicide situation.
The question is, how do you go about maximising expected utility in this situation? I can think of a few different approaches: