I don't see why that would happen, since the universe has already existed for billions of years. Wouldn't the transition either have happened long ago, or be so smooth that the probabilities are essentially constant within human timeframes?
Yes, realistically. You'd have to have long term horizons, or odd circumstance, to get that kind of behaviour in practice.
I don't think the law of physics postulated above would provide any evidence that you can bet on.
I'm not sure - see some of the suggestions by others in this thread. In any case, we can trivially imagine a situation where there is relevant evidence to be gathered, either of the observational or logical kind.
Imagine that the universe is approximately as it appears to be (I know, this is a controversial proposition, but bear with me!). Further imagine that the many worlds interpretation of Quantum mechanics is true (I'm really moving out of Less Wrong's comfort zone here, aren't I?).
Now assume that our universe is in a situation of false vacuum - the universe is not in its lowest energy configuration. Somewhere, at some point, our universe may tunnel into true vacuum, resulting in a expanding bubble of destruction that will eat the entire universe at high speed, destroying all matter and life. In many worlds, such a collapse need not be terminal: life could go one on a branch of lower measure. In fact, anthropically, life will go on somewhere, no matter how unstable the false vacuum is.
So now assume that the false vacuum we're in is highly unstable - the measure of the branch in which our universe survives goes down by a factor of a trillion every second. We only exist because we're in the branch of measure a trillionth of a trillionth of a trillionth of... all the way back to the Big Bang.
None of these assumptions make any difference to what we'd expect to see observationally: only a good enough theory can say that they're right or wrong. You may notice that this setup transforms the whole universe into a quantum suicide situation.
The question is, how do you go about maximising expected utility in this situation? I can think of a few different approaches: