Interesting blog post though the story about Paul seems a bit too neat. Is there anyone here who studied the time period, Christianity and the Bible a lot? If so please comment on the plausibility of this scenario.
Pretty much everything in Acts is bullshit, there's a lot of controversy over Paul's theology, and the Gospels come after a period of considerable intellectual evolution; so I'm inherently distrustful of this sort of textual harmonization. The basic idea that Paul lowered the barriers to entry is of course solid but also frankly uninteresting (although that's a subjective judgment.)
I'm bolding this just in case you aren't familiar with Ibn Khaldun's theory to emphasise how important this is. I would argue that it is basically correct.
At this point I ask my fellow rationalists to consider. If this was the case, what might decline of 'asabiya look like in modern secular societies if it was happening?
If only people commenting on upheavals in the Middle Eastern world actually knew anything about the Middle East, they might actually make usable predictions. Not that punditry is about predictions anyway.