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Stuart_Armstrong comments on Assessing Kurzweil: the results - Less Wrong

42 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 16 January 2013 04:51PM

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Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 15 January 2013 05:51:14PM 11 points [-]

Subjective impression. The predictions are so varied and sometimes so ambiguous, there's no decent way of establishing a base rate. But picking some predictions at random, they appear to be quite specific (certainly better than a dart throwing chimp):

"For the most part, these truly personal computers have no moving parts." "Unused computes on the Internet are being harvested, creating virtual parallel supercomputers with human brain hardware capacity." "The security of computation and communication is the primary focus of the U.S. Department of Defense." "Military conflicts between nations are rare, and most conflicts are between nations and smaller bands of terrorists."