handoflixue comments on Assessing Kurzweil: the results - Less Wrong
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In fairness, it would seem that simply coming up with the prediction is probably a lot of the work.
As a metaphor: it's relatively easy to walk non-experts through a proof of Godel's Incompleteness Theorem. The hard part is often coming up with the idea in the first place, or proving it's correctness; simply agreeing on a proof or theory is vastly easier :)