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AnthonyC comments on Assessing Kurzweil: the results - Less Wrong
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And how it would be most appropriate to correct for that? Normalizing by random on all alternative predictions (that were made or that can be come up with)?
(with non-binary those graphs, as it seems to me, get relatively useless)
Estimate the complexity in bits of each prediction? ;)
How complex, in bits is: "it will rain in Oxford at some point this year"? Very. And yet, I would hesitate to call that an impressive prediction...