= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
cjemmott comments on Assessing Kurzweil: the results - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (59)
You make a quick statement at the end about how Kurzweil does better than random chance. But I wonder how we'd assess that? I'd guess that, if he's getting 50% correct or weakly correct, he's doing better than random chance because many (most?) of his claims are far-fetched.
I've thought of a way to test this, although it will take another ten years:
Kurzweil makes a bunch of predictions about what will happen by 2023. Then you have a bunch of non-experts decide which of his predictions they agree with. After 10 years, we can measure how much better Kurzweil did than the non-experts.
I think I can do this! I read "The Age of Spiritual Machines" when it came out, and remember marking in the margins about whether or not I agreed with each. I was in high school at the time, and think I left the book at home when I left for college. I will see if it is still there.
Though I also agree with the comment from handofixue that making the predictions is much harder than judging them.
Very cool! I'd love to see that. What year did you do this?