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CarlShulman comments on Assessing Kurzweil: the results - Less Wrong
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And how it would be most appropriate to correct for that? Normalizing by random on all alternative predictions (that were made or that can be come up with)?
(with non-binary those graphs, as it seems to me, get relatively useless)
They are at least fairly comparable to the format in Kurzweil's self-assessment, and so useful for putting the high accuracy ratings reported there into perspective.