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TheOtherDave comments on Assessing Kurzweil: the results - Less Wrong
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Agreed that understanding the "difficulty" of a prediction is key if we're going to evaluate the reliability of a predictor in a useful way.
In the future, we might distinguish "difficult" predictions from trivial ones by seeing if the predictions are unlike the predictions made by others at the same time. This is easy to do if we evaluate contemporary predictions.
But I have no idea how to accomplish this when looking back on past predictions. I can't help but to feel that some of Kurzweil's predictions are trivial, yet how can we tell for sure?