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lavalamp comments on Open Thread, January 16-31, 2013 - Less Wrong
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If the government is competent enough to shut down BTC by force (which I kinda doubt), then they're probably competent enough to do something (for them) better: spread the meme that BTC is untraceable and then trace the illicit transactions. I don't think the average user of BTC is capable of pulling off an information-theoretically-untraceable transaction, if such a thing is possible at all. And how can you be sure that the FBI/CIA isn't actually running the coin-mixers?
Either way, I give a low probability of bitcoin vanishing in the next year. 5%? 10%? I think I put down 5% on gwern's predictionbook entry.
This makes sense if you assume the USG shutting down bitcoin is likely to actually be about the illicit transactions. Moldbug isn't making that assumption. Neither would I.
reads article
He seems to model government as a single agent that plans and executes according to its best interests.
I model government as a collection of agents, mostly incompetent, with different incentives and interests.
If BTC indeed drops to zero via the mechanism he outlines in the coming year, I will be impressed and increase my opinion of him, which is (at the moment) somewhat low (this article being the only thing of his I've read).
It's also worth noting that most (all?) of BTC's supposed regime destroying powers depend on its magical ability to allow untraceable transactions (e.g., to avoid income tax). Since I don't think it has that ability, it follows that I don't think it's as much of a threat to governments.