Athrelon comments on [Link] Noam Chomsky Killed Aaron Schwartz - Less Wrong
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That Communism would have fizzled in 1500 is a fact about the strength of non-Communist structures in the Middle Ages. That Communism succeeded in 1917 is a fact about the strength of pro- vs. anti-Communist structures at that time. Strength changes over time; that does not negate the fact that strength (probabilistically) determines victory.
And yet institutions with strength managed to loose it.