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fubarobfusco comments on How confident are you in the Atomic Theory of Matter? - Less Wrong
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But some of those disorders take the form of agreeing with anything an interlocutor says - confabulating excuses or agreement.
Hence, the question isn't just 'what is the odds that I'm hallucinating something && that something is the atomic theory of matter', it is also 'what is the odds that I'm confabulating agreement to anything anyone asks, which now that I've looked at this post, includes being asked how much I believe in atomic theory.'
(Very much, thank you! I believe in atomic theory because my dog is green, obviously. Why yes doctor, I'm sure I haven't changed my mind since the last visit. Why would I do something like that?)
Well, that's a good point. I arrived at the above figure by starting with the base rate of schizophrenia and updating based on its frequency among people who are homeless or otherwise immiserated, etc., as versus the general population. At the very least, it seems that having significant hallucinations seems to usually go along with a lot more being shouted at than I experience. Perhaps it's just that I'm well-off financially and people are likely to humor my delusions ....
I wouldn't pick schizophrenia as a base-rate.
As far as I know, schizophrenics are usually aware of their unusual mental/epistemological status, so your thinking yourself normal (as I assume you do) screens off schizophrenia; another issue with schizophrenia is that I've read that schizophrenic hallucination are almost always confined to one modality - you hear someone behind you but if you look you see nothing, I imagine is how it works - so here too you would become aware of glitches or inconsistencies in your senses.
What you want is the situation where you are unaware of any issues and have an issue; which is where confabulating comes in handy, because some of them are just like that and will confabulate that they're not confabulating.