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aeschere comments on I attempted the AI Box Experiment (and lost) - Less Wrong
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I'm similarly confused. My instincts are that P( AI is safe ) == P( AI is safe | AI said X AND gatekeeper can't identify safe AI ). The standard assumption is that ( AI significantly smarter than gatekeeper ) => ( gatekeeper can't identify safe AI ) so the gatekeeper's priors should never change no matter what X the AI says.