Might explain the first one, but why would anyone else collude? (Oh right, they're all cultists or something. Even the ones who fail to escape the box and just come close.)
If Eliezer had been engaging in collusion to get his wins, why would he have gone through with his last two (failed) attempts with large outside-of-game stakes? That shows pretty clearly that he thought he could win and was wrong, which he wouldn't have if the wins were from collusion. It shows the absence of any persuasive superpower too.
Also, I let the AI out of the box, but I remain an advocate of AI boxing (where it makes sense). So it's not the case that Eliezer has some compelling argument against boxing that convinces everyone (ignored by those with outside-of-game stakes to protect those stakes).
So the chats show something, but not that Eliezer is inhumanly persuasive nor that AI boxing won't work.
If Eliezer had been engaging in collusion to get his wins, why would he have gone through with his last two (failed) attempts with large outside-of-game stakes? That shows pretty clearly that he thought he could win and was wrong, which he wouldn't have if the wins were from collusion.
Yes, that was my point.
It shows the absence of any persuasive superpower too.
I'm not sure whether Eliezer claims this, but from my point of view, failing to talk himself out a simple majority of the time is not interesting (I suppose a simple majority would count as a ...
Update 2013-09-05.
I have since played two more AI box experiments after this one, winning both.
Update 2013-12-30:
I have lost two more AI box experiments, and won two more. Current Record is 3 Wins, 3 Losses.